Of course, pending defects rectification, warranty periods and such. We Joke.

Our new sign at the front of the office

Looking down the main hallway past the store room

Looking at our front signage

What does this mean exactly? For those who are new to forensic planning or simply un-aware as to why negative lag shouldn’t be used, this article may assist in understanding the basic principles.

Suppose you had two activities, one to gather information for a report and one to develop the final report:

In many cases, it is a case of thinking logically but then not applying the logic correctly. For example: “Yes we will start to finalise the report whilst gathering the data for it, so we need to drag that date back on activity 2”.

So the planner then puts a “-14d” into the lag box and voila! The task is “dragged” back, task accomplished.

Then, later on status is applied to the program. The program may be on target at a point in time:

But if you examine the data closely, note that we are finalizing the report well before we’ve even finished gathering the data. Firstly the logic is wrong and secondly, the subsequent result is an EOT claim that is costly to dispute. Why? Because the forensic planning process would include cost to determine what the proper logic should have been and what the impact really was.

Here, the statement “Yes we will start to finalise the report whilst gathering the data for it” should be enough to spur the correct logical application at that point in time. We Start finalizing the report after Starting to Gather data for it. Hence a Start-to-Start relationship from task 1 to task 2 is required.

Whilst planning a project, it is important to remember what float represents. Total Float for example, is the total amount of duration by which an activity can be delayed without the project itself being delayed. As Total Float is consumed, an activity will slowly start to become critical.

Suppose you had the following scenario:

Clearly, we have a constraint placed on “Develop Report” which in itself is not a good habit for planning. Note, that there is 14 days of float on “Write Material”. This 14 days represents the “gap” between the two tasks, which is readily noticed on the Gantt chart.

This gap is what is referred to as Lost Opportunity because it is during that 14 days that we are not performing any work. It is essentially an opportunity to achieve a milestone and produce deliverables. It also can, in a cash flow sense, represent income not achieved.

In most instances float is unavoidable. Float is merely the end result of the critical path calculation for the CPM method, without float we would not be able to determine a critical path.

Make it a point in your programme reviews to check for excessive amounts of float. Maybe there is a way to optimize these periods of time and drive value in your schedule

Following on from our last article on Weather Modeling using Primavera Risk Analysis, we continue our evaluation on the product which has quickly gained favour within our ranks.

Suppose we have defined a project schedule as follows:

Figure 1: Our Base Programme

Making some assumptions about the programme:

1. Our scope is to upgrade a small portion of road and install a common service trench to the side of the road.
2. This is a Tender Programme, so we want to understand the full extent of our “schedule risk” and determine the most realistic date we can
3. We have a fairly good knowledge of the soil conditions however limited information about underground services that may exist that may/may not need relocating

Before Jumping into the main risk analysis, we need to understand the concept of the Three Point Duration Estimate. We are provided with Minimum, Most Likely and Maximum duration fields with which we can quantify the uncertainty of our own duration estimate:

Figure 2: Adding a 3 point estimate to quantify uncertainty around our duration estimate

In the example above, we see that “Subgrade” has a duration of 6 days, however we believe that there is an uncertainty where the duration could be 4, 6 or even 10 days. After all, it is without dispute that when you enter in a duration value (against any activity in any programme) you are merely providing an estimate!

Figure 3: A quick risk template

The process of doing this can be quite arduous, so Primavera Risk Anlaysis allows us to define a “Quick Risk” template. After creating the template, filtering on various activities, we can run it to automatically populate the 3 point estimate for us:

Figure 4: Setting filters for activities in the quick risk template

Figure 5: Applying the template to our activity list

Whilst this in itself is an acceptable approach to modeling duration risk, we can take it one step further and develop a more “scientific” model. We do this by creating a risk register and allocating risks to tasks.

Figure 6: Adding risks to the risk register and scoring them

We load the Risk Register module that accompanies Primavera Risk Anlayis and inside it, we Qualitatively (without measurement) insert the risks that are prevalent to our project’s scope. We need to define risks that have meaning and then rank them. The Risk score is based on the Probability of a risk occurring and the Impact that risk may have on cost, time and/or scope.

We can define the scoring methodology ourselves by adjusting the Risk Scoring Matrix that is maintained for our project:

Figure 7: Adjusting Probability and Impact for the Risk Matrix

We can define the Probability List and the Impact list in order to generate the matrix at the bottom of the screen. From this matrix, the scores that prioritise the qualitatively assessed risks are deduced.

We can also define the Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) to categorise our risks  within the Risk Register. As an example, we have added two additional child items underneath the “Political” Category:

Figure 8: Modifying the Risk Breakdown Structure

Once our Risk Register is defined, we must allocate the Risks against activities in the Programme. By selecting a risk from the risk list and placing a “tick” next to the activities that risk applies to, we can quickly allocate risks to tasks.

Figure 9: Allocating risks to the activities

If we decide to “tick” the “Quantified” checkbox next to a risk, it will allow us to define custom duration estimates for an activity to which it is assigned.

Once we click on the “Risk Analysis” button we are able to step through the simulation. Where no risk is assigned, the simulation will utilize the three point estimate we defined previously:

Figure 10: A step in the risk analysis

Users can notice the durations change and with this, readily view the end result to the date for completion. Interestingly enough, in a few iterations users can note that the “Excavate” activity expands so much that the common service trench work packages become critical. We are in essence, simulating a project taking place, on multiple occasions.

Figure11: Another step in the simulation

Once the simulation is complete, we are able to view the histogram which displays the P80 value of 9^th September:

Figure 12: Distribution Graph for our project

If we wish to be conservative (which is the norm) we could select a contract completion date of 9^th September. We would be suggesting that we are 80% confident that given all known risks and our efforts to simulate the project, that we will be finished by this date.

Gathering our knowledge together we can then introduce our famous “contract contingency” bar into the program to show the client the allowances we are making. Here, we need to add 6 days duration to the end of the program to account for our risk analysis:

Figure 13: Adding our contingency to the plan

If we did not want to add a contingency bar to the end of the programme and perhaps deal with high levels of uncertainty against tasks directly, we could review the Tornado Chart for the programme:

Figure 14: Adding our contingency to the plan

The above diagram depicts the sensitivity of activities within the programme. For example, the “Basecourse” activity has a sensitivity of 84%. The chart ranks the activities that are most likely to impact the project end date.

We could then potentially examine our duration estimate on that activity and either:

(a)     add duration to the activity to allow for the risks we allocated to it or;

(b)     add a new activity as a successor which includes mitigation measures or a contingency allowance or;

(c)     add a new work package to deal directly with the risks at hand

If we were to add a bar to the end of our programme, our plan would finally look complete and would be inclusive of contingency:

Figure 15: Our final plan

Download the Full Article Primavera Risk Analysis

In the midst of the action, the tender planning process can become quite exciting and enjoyable, but it can become confusing quite quickly as a lot of planners can become quickly overrun due to the sheer magnitude of many of these projects.

When entering the planning phase for a tender programme, the following steps can be followed to help alleviate the overwhelming feelings that may be experienced during preparation of a tender for a project:

1. Setup the project calendars capturing the RDO’s, Public Holidays, Working and Non-working days. Define the times of work so that planning 
2. Define a High-level WBS structure to capture the Design, Approvals and procurement processes
3. Define an in-depth WBS Structure for the construction & commissioning phase for the programme
4. Define the Activities, logic & sequencing for the construction phase of the project. This will assist in understanding when the team will need to procure and deliver to site. You won’t be able to understand what you need to procure, unless you understand when, where and what you are building.
   More importantly, don’t go into toomuch detail too quickly. Define backup sheets that supplement the durations estimated. Remember it is a tender programme not a construction programme.
5. Define further, the Procurement WBS structure and add the activities required to be delivered for construction.
6. Now that the items required for construction and procurement are defined, you can further define what must be designed and what must be approved. Add these activities into the programme.
7. Review the calendar assignments and then optimise the critical path
8. Allocate resources against activities to understand the requirement for plant, materials and labour (ie, number of cranes per day, number of operators per hour etc)
9. Perform risk analysis on actvities using Monte Carlo Simulation or PERT analysis.
10. Supply the team with periodic reviews of the programme to maintain constant feedback. Don’t leave it until the last week of reviews to issue a programme to the team

This simple approach can help by acting as a high-level check list and guide the planner(s) through a difficult and time consuming period of time. By working backwards through the programmewe can ensure that all activities are captured for the work that will occur, thus preparing our tender programme properly and mimising the risk of providing  a tender programme with missing pieces of information.

Over the past few months, our senior management team have been toying with the idea of relocating offices. After many discussions, we have decided to renovate Level 2, 345 King William Street and expand the floor.

Coming in the next few weeks will be photos, a new layout and information about our grand re-opening!

So stay in touch! A lot is about to happen!

Standard practice in planning is to determine the required contingency for inclement weather, and place an activity bar towards the end of the schedule, prior to the Practical Completion milestone. Whilst this is an accepted norm, it does not really take into account the fact that not all activities are affected by inclement weather. Really, the “inclement weather bar” is a simple mechanism for a contractor to inform the principal of how much contingency they think they require to compensate for bad weather conditions on site.

Accepted also, is the fact that should an activity be delayed due to weather subsequently impacting the critical path (pushing the Date for Practical Completion out), the planner is then supposed to reduce the contingency duration to compensate. One could essentially accept this method as ‘placing a cushion’ on the end of the critical path.

However, suppose a weather delay is incurred on the activities that are not on the critical path? How can we model this effect to determine the most appropriate amount of contingency? How can we optimise our plan to account for poor weather? Enter Primavera Risk Analysis:

Here, we define the different weather events that may occur. For example, we have added July 2010 and have stated that there is a 25% chance of rain which can cause between 1 and 10 days delay. We would typically get statistics such as these from the Bureau of Meteorology.

We then can, for the project, define multiple collections of weather events. Say for example you had a project where work was being carried out in South Australia and Japan simultaneously, you could define a weather events profile for both regions.

Next, we proceed to allocate the weather profiles to respective activities:

Note that above, we need to select activities one by one and allocate the event calendar. Whilst this appears cumbersome at first, it forces us to actually ‘think’ about what we are doing – thus producing more accuracy in our results.

Once completed, our ‘weather events’ are loaded into the schedule underneath our project plan. During risk simulation, these individual risk activities will activate thus producing delay across our programme. We can define the number of iterations required and actually physically step through each iteration of the project:

Remember that “Risk Analysis” is about analysing risks in your programme/project. “Monte Carlo Simulation” is about running the project in theory, multiple times over to understand what the most likely outcomes will be. Whilst it may seem appropriate to run a simulation 20 million times, it actually does not have much effect on the end result. In conjunction with another consultancy firm,we ran a Risk Simulation on a project in late 2009 (with another product) and after leaving the simulation to run over a weekend, the end result was that the results mimicked those of a typical 1,000 iteration simulation.

You will notice that as we step through each iteration, small blue shadows appear on the Gantt chart itself. you will also notice that the Finish Date for the first activity changes with each iteration. We are simulating the activity occuring multiple times and each time the weather patterns are different. This makes the analysis more realistic of real world events.

Once the simulation is run, we can click on the whole project or a single activity to review the statistics from the analysis. In the above screenshot we can clearly note that there is an 80 percent chance (P80) that given our knowledge of weather conditions in the state, we will most likely finish that activity on 22/11/2010.

We can also review the data for the weather events as well to understand what actually happened with the weather over the simulation. We simulated 1,000 years of the project essentially so what happened in July for each iteration? The above screenshot depicts that in 1,000 simulations it did in fact rain 250 times. Of those 250 times, 80 percent of them occured prior to the 26/7/2010.

So there you have it. Weather Modelling using Primavera Risk Analysis. But what now? Where to from here? What about that contingency bar? Considering we’ve already done the analysis we only need to use the analysis results to determine our probabilistic dates. These dates are then built up using weather modelling across the whole schedule and not just putting a “calculated bar” at the end of the critical path. We then place these dates in our Contract to ensure that our risk of inclement weather is well and truely covered.

In many instances, an activity such as “Detailed Design” may encompass a host of drawings, and performing an assessment of completion can be as simple as recognising the number of drawings completed (out of the total number of drawings in a register).

Some forms of assessment can be broken down into identifyable ‘chunks’. For instance:

• Activity Started – 10%
• Activity in Early Progress – 25%
• Activity further progressed – 50%
• Activity in Draft – 75%
• Activity Complete 100%

However this does not give a detailed enough picture of the progress of the activity. A detailed example could include:

• Not Started – 0%
• Drawing Number Assigned – 5%
• Drawing Started, In Early Progress, First Print to Folder – 20%
• Drawing has Details shown, ready for Issue for Construction (IFC) – 55%
• Drawing ready for Technical Review & Drafting Check – 60%
• Drawing Checked & backdrafted, Holds Listed – 75%
• All comments incorporated for Tender – 90%
• Holds removed and Issued for Construction – 100%

Suppose you had a typical bridge construction sequence:

- Commence Pier
- Drive Piles
- Construct Pile Cap
- Construct Pier
- Place Pier Head

Now, lets assume we require Piles, Pile Crew and Piling Plant as resources to be assigned to the “Drive Piles” activity above. In Primavera:

1. Right click your Gantt Chart view (default is Classic WBS Layout)
2. Select Filters
3. Create a new User Defined Filter
4. Give the Filter a ‘Name’ and in the Filter itself, create a “Where” condition, where the “Activity Name” contains the Value of “Drive Piles”. This will pick up all activities for Driving Piles along the Bridge
5. Click on OK
6. Apply the new filter by ticking the checkbox, and clicking on Apply, then OK

At this point the Gantt View is filtered for all “Drive Piles” activities. The next step is to now assign the resources to all the activities at once:

1. Select the First activity in the sequence, and in the details tab in the bottom pane, click on the “resources” tab
2. Click on “Add Resource”. This creates a popup window with which we can select a resource to assign
3. With the “Add Resource” dialog open, select all of the “Drive Pile” activities
4. Double Click on each resource in the “Add Resource” dialog box

If you then click on any of the filtered activities, Primavera has now assigned the resource to it.

1. Navigate to Project | Filtered For | More Filters
2. Click on New Filter
3. Define the filter as follows:

   
   The Filter Form allows us to define a filter for “any activity that has not yet finished, but should have already started” or “any activity that is due to start between the 1/5 and the 31/5″

4. Click on OK
5. Click on the newly created filter, and click on Apply. This filters the currently selected view in MS Project.